Starting this month, I plan to publish a monthly video, which we’re calling “Regent Peak Pulse: Craig’s Call to Action,” about a topic or theme that has caught my attention. The topics or themes will vary, yet mostly will center around some variation of financial, economic, tax, or legislative story which I feel impacts investors. Included in each video I will provide my thoughts on how to address or counter the issue at hand. In closing, I will then mention one topic I am interested in learning about in the next month, although acknowledging I may not speak to this topic during my next video. So, let’s get started!
Imagine you are an investor, and you purchase shares in a stock that you have been impressed with due to the company’s quarterly earnings results. Each quarter you read up on the quarterly results issued by the company, which in turn provides you with confidence to invest more. Fast forward to 2 years later and this same company announces that they are lowering their previous earnings results which causes the stock price to decline precipitously. How would that make you feel? If this was an honest mistake, at a minimum, it begs of incompetency in the company and leadership team. If done intentionally, lawsuits and potential criminal charges would be levied against that same leadership team. How is the hypothetical any different from the Bureau of Labor & Statistics’ most recent monthly jobs report revisions for May and June that shaved 254,000 jobs from previous announcements [1]? Let’s put politics aside, as it happens in many administrations under different political party leadership. For example, in the 2024 Bureau of Labor Statistics annual report last August, they reduced estimates of predicted jobs by 818,000 jobs, which had been previously announced – really! [2, 3]
Why is it important to analyze this routine occurrence? The monthly jobs numbers are a timely indicator of the state of the US economy. Broad online research will tell you: the stock and bond markets, the Federal Reserve decision makers, economists, business owners and job creators, and political and policy decision wonks, all rely on this important data. If so many institutions and individuals look at this report, why, in this day and age, is it so difficult to get accurate statistical information? Here’s my suggestion: revamp the entire process from top to bottom including talent, systems and procedures, and technology to name a few. For too long we’ve accepted a flawed system. It’s inexcusable and time to demand better from this reporting agency.
And what should you do about the employment numbers? First, don’t singularly focus on these reports when formulating your investment or business decisions, and secondly, consider additional resources to validate decisions.
Looking ahead, I’d like to share a thought. I like to read lots of economic and statistical data – I admit I am a geek. This one caught my attention: Over the past 50 and 20 year time periods, the Dow has averaged negative returns in August and September (the only 2 months to stake that claim). It will be interesting to see if this trend will occur again this year? Might this be a trading opportunity or entry point for those who missed out on the rally after Liberation Day?[4]
For now, keep it cool as the summer months conclude, and I will come back to you in September.
[1] https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm
[2] https://www.bls.gov/ces/notices/2024/2024-preliminary-benchmark-revision.htm
[3] https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/IF12827
[4] Bespoke Report, July 25, 2025, Bespoke Investment Group, www.bespokepremium.com