Earlier this month, my wife and I were watching a college football game when, as you’d expect during October in an election season, we were bombarded with political ads.
She said she couldn’t wait for election season to be over. I agreed.
But here’s something investors may not realize: looking back to 1925, the S&P 500 has gained in 84% of midterm-year fourth quarters AND 92% of the nine-month stretches that followed, pulling an average combined gain of 19.8%! (1)
Historically, markets have been largely politically agnostic and have often responded well to legislative gridlock. The takeaway? Don’t let your political views drive your investment decisions.
Meanwhile, 10-year Treasury yields have climbed significantly in recent months, surpassing 5.25% in early October. I discussed the impact on portfolios last month, but there’s an economic story here, too. (2)
The Bureau of Economic Analysis revised Gross Domestic Income, or GDI, upward by $507 billion, an increase of 1.6%. GDI measures the income generated by producing goods and services, and it’s now grown 6.9% over the past year. (3)
Why does that matter? Interest rates have historically tracked GDI. Excluding the COVID years, GDI is growing at its fastest pace since 2006. One consequence of a strong economy can be higher interest rates. (4)
Finally, the housing market looks very different from six years ago. Home purchases have fallen to their lowest level since April 2020, during the early months of the pandemic. And sellers are now estimated to outnumber buyers by over 580,000 -- the widest gap since 2013. (5)
For anyone looking to buy a home, the balance of power has shifted toward the buyer, largely because of higher mortgage rates. As real estate professionals like to say, “Marry the home, date the mortgage rate.”
Heading into November, I’m looking forward to Thanksgiving, and to seeing Christmas in America 1955, a live radio concert and theatrical event produced by The Public Square in Nashville, Tennessee.
Thanks for watching. I’ll see you again in late November!
(1) - https://nypost.com/2026/09/21/business/worried-about-the-midterms-heres-how-smart-investors-play-them-every-time/
(2) - https://www.reuters.com/world/10-year-us-treasury-yield-hits-highest-since-2002-2026-10-01/
(3) - https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/this-datapoint-could-explain-soaring-bond-yields-d8ec5be0
(4) - https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/this-datapoint-could-explain-soaring-bond-yields-d8ec5be0
(5) - https://www.redfin.com/news/buyers-vs-sellers-august-2026/