Craig's Corner - A Slow and Steady Recovery

Founding Principal & Managing Director, Craig Robson

We know that growth and change do not happen overnight, and of course we can expect economic growth and recovery to take time as we push forward. According to the Wall Street Journal, “U.S. service-sector and manufacturing companies reported solid growth in September, a positive signal for overall economic growth in the third quarter.”

The labor market, which was healing at a fast clip, from a 15% unemployment rate in April, to 8.4% in August, now appears to be stalling as we continue to see rehiring paired with increased job layoffs, which has offset the previous trend.1 I would summarize this economic recovery as slow and steady, as there is much more to be done to get back to pre-pandemic levels.

For most of us it is obvious the housing market continues to grow at a faster pace than most other sectors. Why is this important? Excluding the practicality and overall benefits of owning a home, for more than 50 years recessions have typically been led by a 12-month average reduction in housing starts.2 With August’s 12-month average housing starts reflecting an almost all-time high, this should provide a good indication that a recession is not in our near-term trajectory.

It is likely safe to say that 2020 will be a year we never forget and I suspect many of us acknowledge it has been a challenging and difficult year. I’d like to end with a quote from the late Ruth Bader Ginsburg, “So often in life, things that you regard as an impediment turn out to be great, good fortune.”

  • Craig Robson
  • Founding Principal and Managing Director

The Wall Street Journal is cited in this report and the cited articles may require a subscription to view.