It was an Autumn Friday evening, approximately one year ago, that I received a text message from a good friend stating he needed to speak with me. I was in Tampa attending my younger son's hockey tournament and told him I would call him within an hour. I suspected something was wrong, yet I kept a positive mindset prior to our conversation. My suspicions were unfortunately correct, as he later told me he was diagnosed with stage 4 cancer and the prognosis was not good – in May of this year he passed away to God’s Kingdom at the age of 63. My friend lived a healthy lifestyle, he had a passion for life, he was a successful entrepreneur, and was a professional mentor who helped encourage me to start my own firm. He taught me to take both professional and personal risks, to live my life to the fullest - acknowledging that is a personal decision for each of us. He will be missed by so many, including yours truly.
Excluding that “stopped me in my tracks” conversation last October, I look forward to the fall season as historically the markets perform best during this period. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has averaged over 4% in the final quarter and is up 80% of the time [1]. In a previous Craig's Corner, I have provided various catalysts which may be direct contributors to these positive results, yet please recall these are not guaranteed returns, (otherwise the proverbial Financial Santa Clause would be coming early every year), so be balanced and consistent in your investing timeframes.
That said, various economic data recently released may cause the capital markets over the remaining three months this year to not be so jolly. For starters, the September consumer confidence index dropped the most in the past three years [2]. On top of that, the US manufacturing activity contracted for a sixth straight month in September [3]. Lastly, per the US Bureau of Labor Statistics September report, both the unemployment rate, at 4.1 %, and the number of unemployed people, at 6.8 million, were higher than a year earlier, when the jobless rate was 3.8 %, and the number of unemployed people was 6.3 million [4].
Looking back to those conversations throughout the years with my friend, he would periodically remind me I was 9 years younger than him, which we both knew the mortality tables showed that I would outlive him. He made me promise if the statistics became reality, that I would personally advise his family, which was one of the easiest commitments I have ever made. The unspoken promise I have made back to him is that I will continue to appreciate, and not take for granted, the one life we have all been given. For example, I find myself consistently saying “yes” to opportunities and invitations that in the past I might pass on primarily because I was too busy, or the timing was inconvenient for me.
As my wife and I returned home from his celebration of life earlier this summer, I went into my home office to check up on a few items. As I often do, I turned on my Spotify account and listened to some music. And wouldn’t you know, a song by Tim McGraw was played, whose lyrics are a fitting way to sum up this Craig’s Corner: “Someday I hope you get the chance To Live Like You Were Dying.”
[1] "Stocks Are About To Enter The Best Quarter Of The Year! Are You Ready?" September 13, 2024, Kevin Matras, Zacks (Yahoo Finance) https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stocks-enter-best-quarter-ready-175700470.html
[2] "September consumer confidence falls the most in three years," September 24, 2024, Jeff Cox, CNBC, https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/24/september-consumer-confidence-falls-the-most-in-three-years.html
3 "US Manufacturing Activity Contracts for a Sixth Straight Month," October 1, 2024, Vince Golle, Bloomberg (Yahoo Finance), https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-manufacturing-activity-contracts-sixth-151323003.html
[4] The Employment Situation, Bureau of Labor Statistics, October 4, 2024, https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf