Craig's Corner - Will History Repeat Itself?

Founding Principal & Managing Director, Craig Robson

As of Tuesday, May 19 the S&P 500 increased by almost 31%, since the low point (March 23) during the COVID-19 pandemic. Why is this important? May 19 was the 40th trading day and there have only been five other 40-day periods where the S&P 500 has increased by greater than 25% 1. This surge left some people asking, is it time to de-risk? Perhaps, but we cannot predict future outcomes. I feel it is important to take an in-depth look at the numbers. Respectively, history shows this may be premature when acknowledging the average 1, 3, 6 and 12 month returns, after those other 40-day periods were 15.3, 16.5, 16.7 and 38.6%.1

The COVID-19 pandemic devastated some businesses, but as the days go by the government is lifting more restrictions and people are moving forward. I recently met someone on a virtual conference, and he began by asking me how many of these I typically attend each day. I told him I do video calls all the time! He said he’s tired of conducting virtual meetings and he’s looking forward to in person meetings in the near future. His comment made me wonder how others view this? I agree with him. While I appreciate the efficiencies of virtual meetings, I miss the personal interactions that I have not found replicated on a video call.

Now, I question if over time will we change how we interact? Will we meet in person or rather over a computer, tablet or smartphone? Let me know your thoughts, as I will provide some overall feedback in our next Craig’s Corner.

Another indicator that we as a society are beginning to return to some sense of normalcy: many sports leagues are releasing details on how they plan to move forward. I am curious if fans can attend live sports events, would you go? What measures/procedures would you need to feel comfortable attending?

I will finish with a quote from the sports icon Wayne Gretzky “You always miss 100% of the shots you don’t take.”

  • Craig Robson
  • Founding Principal and Managing Director

Bespoke Report May 22, 2020